DealBook: China’s Focus on Aerospace Raises Security Questions

TIANJIN, China — When Airbus executives arrived here seven years ago scouting for a location to assemble passenger jets, the broad, flat expanse next to Tianjin Binhai International Airport was a grassy field.

Now, Airbus, the European aerospace giant, has 20 large buildings and is churning out four A320 jetliners a month for mostly Chinese state-controlled carriers. The company also has two new neighbors — a sprawling rocket factory and a helicopter manufacturing complex — both producing for the Chinese military.

The rapid expansion of civilian and military aerospace manufacturing in Tianjin reflects China’s broader ambitions.

As Beijing’s leaders try to find new ways to invest $3 trillion of foreign reserves, the country has been aggressively expanding in industries with strong economic potential. The Chinese government and state-owned companies have already made a major push into financial services and natural resources, acquiring stakes in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone and buying oil and gas fields around the world.

Aerospace represents the latest frontier for China, which is eyeing parts manufacturers, materials producers, leasing businesses, cargo airlines and airport operators. The country now rivals the United States as a market for civilian airliners, which China hopes to start supplying from domestic production. And the new leadership named at the Party Congress in November has publicly emphasized long-range missiles and other aerospace programs in its push for military modernization.

If Boeing’s difficulties with its recently grounded aircraft, the Dreamliner, weigh on the industry, it could create opportunity. Chinese companies, which have plenty of capital, have been welcomed by some American companies as a way to create jobs. Wall Street has been eager, too, at a time when other merger activity has been weak.

Washington is trying to figure out what to do about China’s deal-making broadly. “Many of these transactions raise important security issues for our country,” said Michael R. Wessel, a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which was created by Congress to monitor the bilateral relationship. “China’s interest in promoting these investments isn’t necessarily consistent with our own interests, and it’s appropriate to thoroughly examine the transactions.”

In aerospace, the Chinese deal-makers have deep ties to the military, raising additional issues for American regulators. The main contractor for the country’s air force, the state-owned China Aviation Industry Corporation, known as Avic, has set up a private equity fund to purchase companies with so-called dual-use technology that has civilian and military applications, with the goal of investing as much as $3 billion. In 2010, Avic acquired the overseas licensing rights for small aircraft made by Epic Aircraft of Bend, Ore., using lightweight yet strong carbon-fiber composites — the same material used for high-performance fighter jets.

Provincial and local government agencies in Shaanxi Province, a hub of Chinese military aircraft testing and production, have set up another fund of similar size for acquisitions. Last month, a consortium of Chinese investors, including the Shaanxi fund, struck a $4.23 billion deal with the American International Group to buy 80 percent of the International Lease Finance Corporation, which owns the world’s second-largest passenger jet fleet.

“There has always been an obvious cross-fertilization of ideas, expertise and money between the civilian and military,” said Martin Craigs, a longtime aerospace executive in Asia who is now the chairman of the Aerospace Forum Asia, a nonprofit group in Hong Kong. He added that Chinese companies had been actively hiring senior American and European aerospace engineers, so national security concerns could be quelled some by hiring the right people.

The push into aerospace coincides with growing worries in the West and across Asia about China’s increasingly assertive territorial claims, including the dispatch of Chinese warships to waters long patrolled by Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Coincidentally, hours after the A.I.G. deal was announced, two Chinese navy destroyers and two frigates showed up in disputed waters patrolled by Japan. China and Japan have stepped up public criticisms of each other since. And the Obama administration has begun a strategic “pivot,” shifting military forces from the Mideast back to the western Pacific, a move that Chinese officials have criticized as an attempt to contain their country.

Such confrontations in the region are drawing attention to China’s deal-making ambitions.

In October, a $1.79 billion bid by a business linked to Beijing’s municipal government to acquire the corporate jet and propeller plane operations of bankrupt Hawker Beechcraft in Wichita, Kan., fell apart over national security concerns in Washington. Executives found it hard to disentangle the civilian operations from the company’s military contracting business.

But many aerospace experts predict that Chinese investors and companies will find ways to appease American regulators. “There will be concerns undoubtedly and generally quite valid, but the commercial imperatives are such that people will find a way around them,” said Peter Harbison, the chairman of CAPA-Center for Aviation, a global aerospace consulting firm.

The sale of A.I.G.’s leasing business is expected to face scrutiny by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, the government panel that reviews the national security implications of deals involving foreign buyers.

The group’s customers include many of the largest carriers in the United States, and the federal government has long counted on being able to use civilian passenger jets to transport troops overseas during a national emergency. When Saddam Hussein sent the Iraqi army into Kuwait in 1990, the Defense Department relied on the emergency mobilization of civilian jetliners to ferry 60 percent of the soldiers sent to and from the Mideast during the first Persian Gulf war and a quarter of the cargo, according to a RAND study.

Henri Courpron, the chief executive of A.I.G.’s International Lease Finance Corporation, said that he did not believe the United States should be concerned that the acquisition would prevent civilian aircraft from being available in a future crisis. Only 8 percent of the company’s aircraft are currently leased to American air carriers, and most of these are narrow-body aircraft that lack the range to ferry troops across oceans.

“It’s really a nonissue — we have 900-plus aircraft in our fleet, and there are only 11 wide bodies” currently being leased to American carriers, he said in a telephone interview. He added that the carriers have control over the aircraft during the leases. Executives from the consortium buying the stake in the leasing company declined repeated requests for interviews.

Chinese suitors in the aerospace industry understand the concerns. In part, they watched the experience in the natural resources industry. The China National Offshore Oil Corporation failed in its 2005 bid to acquire Unocal after intense political opposition. After that, Chinese energy giants have been more cautious, pursuing minority stakes in the United States and limiting their outright acquisitions.

Chinese companies are taking a similar tack in aerospace, pursuing joint ventures and technical cooperation agreements alongside acquisitions. For example, Avic is working with General Electric and other American aerospace companies on the production of a civilian jetliner, the C919. Beijing envisions the narrow-body C919 as the next step toward building a domestic aerospace business that can compete with Boeing and Airbus.

Western companies and their advisers say that they are acutely aware that technology transfers could help China strengthen its military and develop more competitive civil airplanes, and are taking precautions to protect trade secrets and national security. “You transfer the part that is most easily reverse engineered, or easily dissected,” said a lawyer with detailed knowledge of these transactions.

But many in the aerospace sector are more skeptical that the West can avoid losing control of technology. “The mentality is, they’re going to find a way to get there anyway, and we may as well get there with them,” Mr. Harbison of the CAPA-Center for Aviation said.

Airbus executives say that they are being prudent. They add that there are few trade secrets about the A320 manufactured here, an aircraft that was designed in 1986. “The A320 is well known all over the world,” said Jean-Luc Charles, the general manager of Airbus’s operations here.

A tour of the main assembly area, a hangar with gray steel walls and large red cranes overhead, suggests that it may be possible to protect the technology. The seats are installed here and the aircraft painted, but the factory is largely assembling planes from kits imported from Europe. Entire fuselages, with green protective coatings, are brought by ship from Hamburg, Germany. Even the stepladders and freight elevators give weight limits in German, and the tool boxes are labeled in English, not Chinese.

Mr. Charles said that 95 percent of the parts are still imported, and that it would take many years for that amount to shrink. “One by one, we start to give them the parts,” he said. “But each subassembly is a complex project — it takes five years.”

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With Obama fundraising, Latinos demonstrate growing clout









WASHINGTON — Cecilia Soto-Loftus, co-founder of a Malibu party services company, was new to presidential politics when she started raising money for President Obama's reelection bid last year.


After pulling in more than $400,000, she is getting the red carpet treatment at this weekend's inaugural festivities, with invitations to a strategy briefing for top fundraisers, a VIP candlelight reception and the official inaugural ball.


The special access reflects the unusual role Soto-Loftus and other Latino fundraisers played in Obama's 2012 campaign, the first to focus on tapping Latino celebrities, lawyers, business owners and community leaders for cash. The effort, called the Futuro Fund, aimed to raise $6 million — and brought in more than $30 million.





"It really sent a strong message that we shouldn't be overlooked," said Soto-Loftus, a Boyle Heights native who hopes to be considered for an ambassadorship, perhaps to Costa Rica or the Bahamas. "And I think we have only hit the tip of the iceberg."


Though $30 million was a small slice of Obama's record $1.1-billion haul, the Futuro Fund inducted a new cohort of donors into national politics, and created a Latino fundraising network that other politicians are clamoring to access. Most importantly, the group's work demonstrated the growing clout of Latinos beyond the ballot box.


"This is practically the final frontier in terms of what we need to be doing as political players in this country," said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Assn. of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. "We've had the elected officials. We've had the activists. We've had the voters. And now we have the donors."


Democrats are using the inauguration to cement ties with the new class of donors.


Obama named actress Eva Longoria, a co-founder of the Futuro Fund, as co-chairwoman of his inaugural committee. And on Sunday night, Vice President Joe Biden made a surprise appearance at a gala performance of legendary Latino artists including Jose Feliciano, Rita Moreno and Chita Rivera that Longoria hosted at the Kennedy Center. The event was the culmination of Latino Inaugural 2013, a three-day celebration organized by the Futuro Fund.


"In this election, you spoke in a way that the world — and I mean the world, as well as the United States — could not fail to hear," Biden said as he thanked the black-tie crowd.


The proximity to power has given Latino fundraisers a new avenue to push their policy agenda. During the campaign, Longoria and others pressed Obama to overhaul immigration laws. Now they aim to continue advocating for immigration reform, for more Latinos in the administration, and for a host of other issues.


"We're going to be able to have influence on what affects our communities, whether it's the economy or jobs or education or healthcare," Longoria said before taking the stage Sunday night.


"The work begins now," noted Henry R. Muñoz III, owner of a San Antonio architecture firm. "It's all about how we harness and leverage what we have been able to achieve."


He and Longoria started the fund with San Juan lawyer Andres Lopez, an early backer of Obama who was frustrated when few other Latino fundraisers participated in the 2008 campaign. "We hadn't shown our financial muscle and hadn't earned the respect at that very important table we thought we could earn," Lopez said.


In mid-2011, the trio made their pitch to Obama campaign manager Jim Messina and finance chairman Matthew Barzun during a meeting in Chicago: Make time for us on the president's fundraising schedule, and we will bring in money.


"We originally offered [to raise] $6 million, and they said, 'Do you think you can do 12?' And we said, 'We'll try,'" Muñoz recalled.


A large share came at high-dollar events, such as a fundraiser Obama headlined at the Los Angeles home of actors Antonio Banderas and Melanie Griffith. But organizers also worked the phones. Concern about the GOP presidential challengers, who quarreled in the primaries over who would be tougher on illegal immigrants, helped spur contributions.


Latino donors "just didn't feel that the Republicans even understood their point of view," Lopez said. "And frankly, a lot of them said, 'I've never been asked,' which was our hunch."


Alex Nava, a 36-year-old commercial litigation lawyer in San Antonio, had given a few hundred dollars to Obama's 2008 campaign. He felt little incentive to give more, he said, because "any money I gave would be lost in the larger shuffle."


Then Muñoz called and explained how they hoped to demonstrate Latino fundraising power.


"I wanted to be part of that," said Nava, who donated the $5,000 maximum to the 2012 campaign.


A similar sentiment motivated Amalia Perea Mahoney, a 59-year-old art gallery owner in Chicago. Mahoney volunteered for Obama's campaign in 2008, but had never raised money. That changed after she attended a Futuro Fund briefing at Obama headquarters.


"I thought it was a great tool to get the Latinos a seat at the table," said Mahoney, who ultimately brought in between $200,000 and $500,000.


Some of the wooing was done by Obama, who met with about 20 prominent Latinos at a Washington hotel in early 2012.


"We felt part of the process, not just on the bleachers watching," said Ralph Patino, a 55-year-old trial lawyer in Coral Gables, Fla. He now has a photo of Obama with the group displayed in his law firm.


He and his wife, Elizabeth, gave more than $150,000 to the campaign and the Democratic Party, along with nearly $10,000 to the inaugural committee. They were among top donors who met the president and first lady, as well as Biden and his wife, at the White House on Friday.


Elizabeth Patino, a 37-year-old lawyer, said she was now contemplating jumping into politics, perhaps running for city commissioner this spring.


"I didn't know that I had this piece in me that really likes the political world," she said. "I was always somewhat afraid of it. But seeing how Latinos could come together and make such a great impact on a national level — it's just intoxicating."


matea.gold@latimes.com





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A 'Courage Board' for All Conditions






Rating: 9/10 Nearly flawless; buy it now






It’s easy to guess what The Hovercraft was built for just by looking at it: The short swallowtail and the big blunted nose all scream “powder hound.”


I did my first series of tests in early December up in Lake Tahoe, and there was a lot more crust, ice and grooms than powder, so I took it out without expecting much. I got waaay more than I figured I would: The board held its edge just fine in the groomers, but there was no surprise there. The shock came when I crossed over to the shaded side of the mountain, when the soft groomers turned into icy crud. I was fully expecting the Jones to sketch out and leave me butt-checking all over the place, but The Hovercraft’s edge sliced right into the ice and held it as well as it did the soft stuff. No transition, no adjustments — the board just went from soft snow to ice without skipping a beat.


It was so odd that it took me most of the morning before I really trusted it. But by lunchtime, I was flying down the mountain at speeds I wouldn’t dare with any of the other boards we tested. The board’s great bite is thanks to the Jones’ underfoot camber and so-called Magne-Traction edges, which essentially act like a serrated blade to bite into hard snow. These features combine to give the board a huge amount of precision and control in hard snow.


A few weeks later, I was finally able to take it out on Mt. Shasta’s backcountry to hit some deep stuff. It excelled there as well (entirely as expected) thanks to the rockered and blunted nose, which let the board float on top of the soft stuff, while the short, stiff tail made it easy to kick back and keep the nose up.


Bottom line: I’ve never seen a board perform so well in such a wide range of snow conditions. During my multi-mountain testing session of The Hovercraft snowboard, I let one of my friends ride it. He echoed my own thoughts with one simple statement: “This thing just does whatever you ask it to do.”


WIRED Simply some of the best all-mountain performance I’ve seen. Great float on powder, plus a locked-in grip on ice and crud. Seamlessly transitions from soft to hard snow. Shockingly lightweight construction.


TIRED Blunt nose and swallowtail design means you’re not gonna be riding a lot of switch.







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Journalist Barbara Walters hospitalized after fall at Washington party






(Reuters) – Veteran journalist Barbara Walters was admitted to a Washington. D.C., hospital over the weekend after she fell and cut her head at the British ambassador’s residence, a spokesman for the ABC television network said on Sunday.


Jeffrey Schneider, a senior vice president with ABC News, said Walters fell on the stairs on Saturday evening while attending an event.






“Out of an abundance of caution,” Walters, 83, went to the hospital, where she remained for observation on Sunday, Schneider said.


“Barbara is alert (and telling everyone what to do), which we all take as a very positive sign,” Schneider said in a written statement.


(Reporting by James B. Kelleher, editing by Stacey Joyce)


Celebrity News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Well: A Check on Physicals

“Go Beyond Your Father’s Annual Physical. Live Longer, Feel Better”

This sales pitch for the Princeton Longevity Center’s “comprehensive exam” promises, for $5,300, to take “your health beyond the annual physical.” But it is far from certain whether this all-day checkup, and others less inclusive, make a meaningful difference to health or merely provide reassurance to the worried well.

Among physicians, researchers and insurers, there is an ongoing debate as to whether regular checkups really reduce the chances of becoming seriously ill or dying of an illness that would have been treatable had it been detected sooner.

No one questions the importance of regular exams for well babies, children and pregnant women, and the protective value of specific exams, like a Pap smear for sexually active women and a colonoscopy for people over 50. But arguments against the annual physical for all adults have been fueled by a growing number of studies that failed to find a medical benefit.

Some experts note that when something seemingly abnormal is picked up during a routine exam, the result is psychological distress for the patient, further testing that may do more harm than good, and increased medical expenses.

“Part of the problem of looking for abnormalities in perfectly well people is that rather a lot of us have them,” Dr. Margaret McCartney, a Scottish physician, wrote in The Daily Mail, a British newspaper. “Most of them won’t do us any harm.”

She cited the medical saga of Brian Mulroney, former prime minister of Canada. A CT scan performed as part of a checkup in 2005 revealed two small lumps in Mr. Mulroney’s lungs. Following surgery, he developed an inflamed pancreas, which landed him in intensive care. He spent six weeks in the hospital, then was readmitted a month later for removal of a cyst on his pancreas caused by the inflammation.

The lumps on his lungs, by the way, were benign. But what if, you may ask, Mr. Mulroney’s lumps had been cancer? Might not the discovery during a routine exam have saved his life?

Logic notwithstanding, the question of benefits versus risks from routine exams can be answered only by well-designed scientific research.

Defining the value of a routine checkup — determining who should get one and how often — is especially important now, because next year the Affordable Care Act will add some 30 million people to the roster of the medically insured, many of whom will be eligible for government-mandated preventive care through an annual exam.

Dr. Ateev Mehrotra of the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, who directed a study of annual physicals in 2007, reported that an estimated 44.4 million adults in the United States undergo preventive exams each year. He concluded that if every adult were to receive such an exam, the health care system would be saddled with 145 million more visits every year, consuming 41 percent of all the time primary care doctors spend with patients.

There is already a shortage of such doctors and not nearly enough other health professionals — physician assistants and nurse practitioners — to meet future needs. If you think the wait to see your doctor is too long now, you may want to stock up on some epic novels to keep you occupied in the waiting room in the future.

Few would challenge the axiom that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Lacking incontrovertible evidence for the annual physical, this logic has long been used to justify it:

¶ If a thorough exam and conversation about your well-being alerts your doctor to a health problem that is best addressed sooner rather than later, isn’t that better than waiting until the problem becomes too troublesome to ignore?

¶ What if you have a potentially fatal ailment, like heart disease or cancer, that may otherwise be undetected until it is well advanced or incurable?

¶ And wouldn’t it help to uncover risk factors like elevated blood sugar or high cholesterol that could prevent an incipient ailment if they are reversed before causing irreparable damage?

Even if there is no direct medical benefit, many doctors say that having their patients visit once a year helps to maintain a meaningful relationship and alert doctors to changes in patients’ lives that could affect health. It is also an opportunity to give patients needed immunizations and to remind them to get their eyes, teeth and skin checked.

But the long-sacrosanct recommendation that everyone should have an annual physical was challenged yet again recently by researchers at the Nordic Cochrane Center in Copenhagen.

The research team, led by Dr. Lasse T. Krogsboll, analyzed the findings of 14 scientifically designed clinical trials of routine checkups that followed participants for up to 22 years. The team found no benefit to the risk of death or serious illness among seemingly healthy people who had general checkups, compared with people who did not. Their findings were published in November in BMJ (formerly The British Medical Journal).

In introducing their analysis, the Danish team noted that routine exams consist of “combinations of screening tests, few of which have been adequately studied in randomized trials.” Among possible harms from health checks, they listed “overdiagnosis, overtreatment, distress or injury from invasive follow-up tests, distress due to false positive test results, false reassurance due to false negative test results, adverse psychosocial effects due to labeling, and difficulties with getting insurance.”

Furthermore, they wrote, “general health checks are likely to be expensive and may result in lost opportunities to improve other areas of health care.”

In summarizing their results, the team said, “We did not find an effect on total or cause-specific mortality from general health checks in adult populations unselected for risk factors or disease. For the causes of death most likely to be influenced by health checks, cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality, there were no reductions either.”

What, then, should people do to monitor their health?

Whenever you see your doctor, for any reason, make sure your blood pressure is checked. If a year or more has elapsed since your last blood test, get a new one.

Keep immunizations up to date, and get the screening tests specifically recommended based on your age, gender and known risk factors, including your family and personal medical history.

And if you develop a symptom, like unexplained pain, shortness of breath, digestive problems, a lump, a skin lesion that doesn’t heal, or unusual fatigue or depression, consult your doctor without delay. Seek further help if the initial diagnosis and treatment fails to bring relief.

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DealBook: In Davos, Atmosphere for Bankers Improves

Two years ago, Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, told an audience in Davos, Switzerland, that people should stop picking on bankers. Mr. Dimon is still waiting for his wish to come true.

Bankers, always a big presence at the World Economic Forum in Davos, will arrive this year under less regulatory pressure and with better profits than in past years. But they are still on the defensive.

Mr. Dimon, scheduled to appear on one of the first panels when the Davos forum opens on Wednesday, is again embroiled in controversy. Last week, JPMorgan’s board cut his pay for 2012 in half, to $11.5 million, holding him accountable for a multibillion-dollar loss on derivatives trading.

International bankers are under pressure from the law enforcement authorities as well, and examples can be found near Davos.

UBS, based in Zurich, agreed to pay a $1.5 billion fine to the global authorities after admitting this month that it had helped manipulate a benchmark rate used to set mortgage and other interest rates.

And Wegelin & Company, a private bank based in St. Gallen, Switzerland, shut down this month after admitting it had helped wealthy Americans evade taxes. The bank, founded in 1741, was the oldest in Switzerland.

At a news conference last week in Washington, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, lamented a “waning commitment” to tougher financial regulation and called upon the banking authorities to finish the job of fixing the world’s banks.

For all that, though, bankers may find the atmosphere in Davos a bit more congenial than in some recent years. Among the government overseers who will also be in attendance, there appears to be a growing sentiment that the banks have taken enough abuse.

This month in Basel, Switzerland, for instance, an international gathering of central bankers and bank supervisors relaxed new rules that were intended to ensure that banks would be able to survive an event like the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

The rules, which are not binding but serve as a benchmark for national regulators, would require banks to maintain a 30-day supply of cash or liquid assets that are easy to convert into cash. But after the decision in Basel this month, banks would have until 2019 to accumulate the additional cash and assets, instead of 2015.

The regulators also broadened the types of assets that could be used to include even some mortgage-backed securities — the same general class of security that was at the heart of the crisis.

Many analysts see the decision as a gift to the banking industry, which had insisted that planned new regulations would lead banks to curtail lending. Bank stocks in Europe rose after the decision.

“Most bankers I talked to breathed a huge sigh of relief,” said Cornelius K. Hurley, a professor at the Boston University School of Law and former assistant general counsel to the board of governors of the Federal Reserve.

Gavan Nolan, a credit analyst at Markit, a data provider in London, agreed that changes in the rules “went further than many had presumed, and in a direction that seems to favor the banks.” Still, he wrote in a note to clients, “the effects shouldn’t be overstated,” adding that the rules “will still make it more difficult to make money, in comparison to the previous era.”

The discussions at Davos may offer clues about whether the Basel decisions foreshadow other concessions.

There is a risk that efforts to rein in financial risk could lose momentum as the trauma of Lehman’s collapse fades, Mr. Hurley said.

“We said to ourselves back in 2008, a crisis is a terrible thing to waste,” he said. “It seems the farther away we get, the evidence is that we are wasting it.”

The World Economic Forum tends to be a place for talk rather than action, but it is one of the few events that reliably brings central bankers, regulators, economists, legislators and bankers under one snow-laden roof.

The discussions have sometimes been contentious, as in 2010 when American policy makers like Representative Barney Frank met behind closed doors with top bankers including Brian T. Moynihan, then the chief executive of Bank of America.

Mr. Frank left the meeting fuming about bankers’ unwillingness to accept more safeguards and vowed to impose them anyway. Six months later, Congress passed the sweeping financial regulation bill known as Dodd-Frank.

But Mr. Frank has retired, and there are signs that the officials who set the tone for global regulation of banks have become more worried about a credit squeeze in Europe than about the risk of another banking crisis.

Some of the most influential people in the regulation debate are sounding more conciliatory.

“We welcome these rules, we think they are important,” Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank and a member of the group that met in Basel, said this month. “We also welcome their gradual phasing in.”

At least some banks have had a profit rebound recently, including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, whose chief executive, Lloyd C. Blankfein, is scheduled to take part in a panel on competitiveness at Davos on Friday.

European banks are still ailing, though, which threatens the fragile calm that has prevailed in financial markets. Whereas the euro zone debt crisis has fallen most heavily on southern European countries like Spain, weakness in the banking system is a problem even in healthier countries like Germany.

Deutsche Bank, the largest lender in Germany, is profitable but faces official investigations in Germany and the United States, mostly related to its activities before the financial crisis.

In December, police officers surrounded the bank’s headquarters in Frankfurt and seized documents as part of a tax-evasion inquiry that involves one of the bank’s co-chief executives, Jürgen Fitschen.

Other large German banks like Commerzbank and several of the state-owned landesbanks are still hobbled by bad investments they made before Lehman collapsed.

Belgium, France and Austria also have troubled banks, even though they are not considered to be countries in crisis.

“The bottom line is that I don’t think the banking system is in good condition, and I don’t expect it to come back to good condition soon,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research institute in Brussels.

Mr. Véron said he did not have reservations about the decision in Basel to ease new regulations on liquid assets, noting that previously there were no rules at all on liquidity.

“I think the big headline remains that liquidity regulations have been introduced,” he said. “When you look at what has happened in the crisis, that is a good thing.”

But he sounded less optimistic that policy makers meeting in Davos or elsewhere were making progress on other important banking issues, like how to close down terminally ill banks at no cost to taxpayers.

“We have not had the systemwide restructuring process I believe is necessary to get back to sound conditions,” he said.

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Obama's second inauguration a mark of progress in its own right








WASHINGTON — The first time Barack Obama ran, the euphoria that attended his election captivated Kamilah Aquil. Then came his presidency, a bracing reality check.


Hope faded. Not enough changed. But for Aquil, that doesn't make Obama a disappointment.


It does make this second inauguration Monday a landmark she never expected and one she considers even more profound than the first. He's not just the first black president, but a man Americans trusted enough, missteps and all, to give another shot at shepherding our country.






That's one reason Aquil, a Los Angeles County probation officer, was headed for Washington last week with her 13-year-old son, Makhi Garvey.


I met them on the flight from Los Angeles, and questioned her — as I have dozens of black strangers in the last few weeks — about her verdict on Obama, who drew a record turnout of black voters in November, but less enthusiasm than in 2008.


Aquil has heard the grumbling that Obama hasn't done enough to relieve black suffering. She doesn't see it that way. "He puts it out on the table and tries to advocate for the country as a whole," she said. "He can only do so much."


Aquil was born and raised in Compton. She veered off track as a teenager, but an adult she admired steered her "off the path of destruction" and pointed her toward college.


She thinks about that when she sees her son watching President Obama. "It's his influence, who he is as an individual," she says, looking beyond the president's politics to praise his patience, tenacity and balance.


For her, and for millions of African Americans whose votes kept Obama in office, this president's reelection didn't turn on the standard question: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?


It was tied as well to a bigger vision, a sense that their footing is more solid and their children's future brighter because a black man — this particular black man — resides in the White House.


::


There have been reams written in the last four years about the ways race complicated the leadership challenges faced by the nation's first black president.


Now, as Obama enters his second term, those themes are already being replayed.


Ben Jealous, head of the National Assn. for the Advancement of Colored People, is as tired of answering the question as I've become of asking. Has Obama delivered for the masses of black people who helped put him in office?


Jealous sighs — its meaning clear in the silence:


Isn't it enough that the man expanded access to healthcare, dispatched Osama bin Laden and steered the nation through the worst recession in 70 years?


"I'm waiting for the article about the white president who disappointed the white people the most," Jealous said.


"How come nobody ever asked that question: How did white people feel about Bill Clinton, about George Bush?"


Because a white president has always been perceived to be the leader of all the people.


Obama's appraisal is muddied by uncertain expectations.






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Wired Science Space Photo of the Day: Soap Bubble Nebula


Informally known as the "Soap Bubble Nebula", this planetary nebula (officially known as PN G75.5+1.7) was discovered by amateur astronomer Dave Jurasevich on July 6th, 2008. It was noted and reported by Keith Quattrocchi and Mel Helm on July 17th, 2008. This image was obtained with the Kitt Peak Mayall 4-meter telescope on June 19th, 2009 in the H-alpha (orange) and [OIII] (blue) narrowband filters. In this image, north is to the left and east is down.


PN G75.5+1.7 is located in the constellation of Cygnus, not far from the Crescent Nebula (NGC 6888). It is embedded in a diffuse nebula which, in conjunction with its faintness, is the reason it was not discovered until recently. The spherical symmetry of the shell is remarkable, making it very similar to Abell 39.


Image: T. A. Rector/University of Alaska Anchorage, H. Schweiker/WIYN and NOAO/AURA/NSF [high-resolution] Read NOAO Conditions of Use before downloading


Caption: NOAO

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Well: Holly the Cat's Incredible Journey

Nobody knows how it happened: an indoor housecat who got lost on a family excursion managing, after two months and about 200 miles, to return to her hometown.

Even scientists are baffled by how Holly, a 4-year-old tortoiseshell who in early November became separated from Jacob and Bonnie Richter at an R.V. rally in Daytona Beach, Fla., appeared on New Year’s Eve — staggering, weak and emaciated — in a backyard about a mile from the Richter’s house in West Palm Beach.

“Are you sure it’s the same cat?” wondered John Bradshaw, director of the University of Bristol’s Anthrozoology Institute. In other cases, he has suspected, “the cats are just strays, and the people have got kind of a mental justification for expecting it to be the same cat.”

But Holly not only had distinctive black-and-brown harlequin patterns on her fur, but also an implanted microchip to identify her.

“I really believe these stories, but they’re just hard to explain,” said Marc Bekoff, a behavioral ecologist at the University of Colorado. “Maybe being street-smart, maybe reading animal cues, maybe being able to read cars, maybe being a good hunter. I have no data for this.”

There is, in fact, little scientific dogma on cat navigation. Migratory animals like birds, turtles and insects have been studied more closely, and use magnetic fields, olfactory cues, or orientation by the sun.

Scientists say it is more common, although still rare, to hear of dogs returning home, perhaps suggesting, Dr. Bradshaw said, that they have inherited wolves’ ability to navigate using magnetic clues. But it’s also possible that dogs get taken on more family trips, and that lost dogs are more easily noticed or helped by people along the way.

Cats navigate well around familiar landscapes, memorizing locations by sight and smell, and easily figuring out shortcuts, Dr. Bradshaw said.

Strange, faraway locations would seem problematic, although he and Patrick Bateson, a behavioral biologist at Cambridge University, say that cats can sense smells across long distances. “Let’s say they associate the smell of pine with wind coming from the north, so they move in a southerly direction,” Dr. Bateson said.

Peter Borchelt, a New York animal behaviorist, wondered if Holly followed the Florida coast by sight or sound, tracking Interstate 95 and deciding to “keep that to the right and keep the ocean to the left.”

But, he said, “nobody’s going to do an experiment and take a bunch of cats in different directions and see which ones get home.”

The closest, said Roger Tabor, a British cat biologist, may have been a 1954 study in Germany which cats placed in a covered circular maze with exits every 15 degrees most often exited in the direction of their homes, but more reliably if their homes were less than five kilometers away.

New research by the National Geographic and University of Georgia’s Kitty Cams Project, using video footage from 55 pet cats wearing video cameras on their collars, suggests cat behavior is exceedingly complex.

For example, the Kitty Cams study found that four of the cats were two-timing their owners, visiting other homes for food and affection. Not every cat, it seems, shares Holly’s loyalty.

KittyCams also showed most of the cats engaging in risky behavior, including crossing roads and “eating and drinking substances away from home,” risks Holly undoubtedly experienced and seems lucky to have survived.

But there have been other cats who made unexpected comebacks.

“It’s actually happened to me,” said Jackson Galaxy, a cat behaviorist who hosts “My Cat From Hell” on Animal Planet. While living in Boulder, Colo., he moved across town, whereupon his indoor cat, Rabbi, fled and appeared 10 days later at the previous house, “walking five miles through an area he had never been before,” Mr. Galaxy said.

Professor Tabor cited longer-distance reports he considered credible: Murka, a tortoiseshell in Russia, traveling about 325 miles home to Moscow from her owner’s mother’s house in Voronezh in 1989; Ninja, who returned to Farmington, Utah, in 1997, a year after her family moved from there to Mill Creek, Wash.; and Howie, an indoor Persian cat in Australia who in 1978 ran away from relatives his vacationing family left him with and eventually traveled 1,000 miles to his family’s home.

Professor Tabor also said a Siamese in the English village of Black Notley repeatedly hopped a train, disembarked at White Notley, and walked several miles back to Black Notley.

Still, explaining such journeys is not black and white.

In the Florida case, one glimpse through the factual fog comes on the little cat’s feet. While Dr. Bradshaw speculated Holly might have gotten a lift, perhaps sneaking under the hood of a truck heading down I-95, her paws suggest she was not driven all the way, nor did Holly go lightly.

“Her pads on her feet were bleeding,” Ms. Richter said. “Her claws are worn weird. The front ones are really sharp, the back ones worn down to nothing.”

Scientists say that is consistent with a long walk, since back feet provide propulsion, while front claws engage in activities like tearing. The Richters also said Holly had gone from 13.5 to 7 pounds.

Holly hardly seemed an adventurous wanderer, though her background might have given her a genetic advantage. Her mother was a feral cat roaming the Richters’ mobile home park, and Holly was born inside somebody’s air-conditioner, Ms. Richter said. When, at about six weeks old, Holly padded into their carport and jumped into the lap of Mr. Richter’s mother, there were “scars on her belly from when the air conditioner was turned on,” Ms. Richter said.

Scientists say that such early experience was too brief to explain how Holly might have been comfortable in the wild — after all, she spent most of her life as an indoor cat, except for occasionally running outside to chase lizards. But it might imply innate personality traits like nimbleness or toughness.

“You’ve got these real variations in temperament,” Dr. Bekoff said. “Fish can by shy or bold; there seem to be shy and bold spiders. This cat, it could be she has the personality of a survivor.”

He said being an indoor cat would not extinguish survivalist behaviors, like hunting mice or being aware of the sun’s orientation.

The Richters — Bonnie, 63, a retired nurse, and Jacob, 70, a retired airline mechanics’ supervisor and accomplished bowler — began traveling with Holly only last year, and she easily tolerated a hotel, a cabin or the R.V.

But during the Good Sam R.V. Rally in Daytona, when they were camping near the speedway with 3,000 other motor homes, Holly bolted when Ms. Richter’s mother opened the door one night. Fireworks the next day may have further spooked her, and, after searching for days, alerting animal agencies and posting fliers, the Richters returned home catless.

Two weeks later, an animal rescue worker called the Richters to say a cat resembling Holly had been spotted eating behind the Daytona franchise of Hooters, where employees put out food for feral cats.

Then, on New Year’s Eve, Barb Mazzola, a 52-year-old university executive assistant, noticed a cat “barely standing” in her backyard in West Palm Beach, struggling even to meow. Over six days, Ms. Mazzola and her children cared for the cat, putting out food, including special milk for cats, and eventually the cat came inside.

They named her Cosette after the orphan in Les Misérables, and took her to a veterinarian, Dr. Sara Beg at Paws2Help. Dr. Beg said the cat was underweight and dehydrated, had “back claws and nail beds worn down, probably from all that walking on pavement,” but was “bright and alert” and had no parasites, heartworm or viruses. “She was hesitant and scared around people she didn’t know, so I don’t think she went up to people and got a lift,” Dr. Beg said. “I think she made the journey on her own.”

At Paws2Help, Ms. Mazzola said, “I almost didn’t want to ask, because I wanted to keep her, but I said, ‘Just check and make sure she doesn’t have a microchip.’” When told the cat did, “I just cried.”

The Richters cried, too upon seeing Holly, who instantly relaxed when placed on Mr. Richter’s shoulder. Re-entry is proceeding well, but the mystery persists.

“We haven’t the slightest idea how they do this,” Mr. Galaxy said. “Anybody who says they do is lying, and, if you find it, please God, tell me what it is.”

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N.T.S.B. Rules Out a Cause for Battery Fire on 787 Dreamliner





TOKYO — The National Transportation Safety Board has ruled out excess voltage as the cause of a battery fire on the Boeing 787 Dreamliner jet operated by Japan Airlines at Boston’s Logan Airport this month, the agency said on Sunday.




Last week, governments across the world grounded the Dreamliner jet after a problem with a lithium-ion battery on a second 787 plane, flown by All Nippon Airways forced the jet to make an emergency landing in western Japan.


The agency said in a statement forwarded by a Boeing Japan representative that examination of the flight recorder data from the JAL B-787 airplane indicated that the battery in the auxiliary power unit “did not exceed its designed voltage of 32 volts.”


On Friday, a Japanese safety official told reporters that excessive electricity may have overheated the battery in the ANA-owned Dreamliner, which was forced to make an emergency landing at Japan’s Takamatsu airport last week.


American investigators have examined the lithium-ion battery that powered the auxiliary unit, where the battery fire started in the JAL plane, as well as several other components removed from the airplane, including wire bundles and battery management circuit boards, the safety agency statement said.


On Tuesday, the investigating group will convene in Arizona to test and examine the battery charger and download nonvolatile memory from the controller of the auxiliary power unit, it added.


The GS Yuasa Corporation of Japan makes the batteries for the Dreamliner, while Thales of France makes the control systems for the battery.


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